Gore ra2025 richave rakakosha zvikuru muchikamu chesimba repasi rose nezviwanikwa. Kurwisana kuri kuenderera mberi pakati peRussia neUkraine, kumisa mhirizhonga muGaza, pamwe nemusangano weCOP30 uri kuuya muBrazil - uyo uchava wakakosha pamitemo yemamiriro ekunze - zvese zviri kuumba mamiriro asina chokwadi. Panguva iyi, kutanga kwetemu yechipiri yaTrump, nematanho ekutanga ehondo nemitero yekutengeserana, kwawedzera kusawirirana pazvematongerwo enyika.
Pakati pemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara aya, makambani emagetsi anotarisana nesarudzo dzakaoma pakugoverwa kwemari mumafuta epasi uye mari inoshandiswa mukudyara mari shoma. Mushure mekuita M&A kwakaputsika mumwedzi gumi nemisere yapfuura, kubatana pakati pemakambani makuru emafuta kuchiri kwakasimba uye kunogona kupararira mumigodhi munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Panguva imwe chete, data center neAI boom zviri kukurudzira kudiwa kukuru kwemagetsi akachena nguva dzese, zvichida rutsigiro rwakasimba rwemitemo.
Heano maitiro mashanu akakosha achaumba chikamu chesimba muna 2025:
1. Mitemo yeGeopolitics neTravelation Zvinochinja Misika
Zvirongwa zvitsva zvemitero zvaTrump zvinotyisidzira kukura kwepasi rose, zvichigona kuderedza 50 basis points kubva pakuwedzera kweGDP uye kuidzikisa kusvika pa3%. Izvi zvinogona kuderedza kudiwa kwemafuta pasi rose ne500,000 barrels pazuva - kukura kweinenge hafu yegore. Panguva iyi, kubuda kweUS kubva muchibvumirano cheParis hakurevi mukana wekuti nyika dzikwidze zvinangwa zvadzo zveNDC pamberi peCOP30 kuti dzidzokere padanho re2°C. Kunyangwe Trump achiisa Ukraine neMiddle East rugare pamusoro pechirongwa, chero sarudzo inogona kuwedzera kuwanikwa kwezvinhu uye kuderedza mitengo.
2. Kukwira kweInvestment, Asi Zvishoma Nezvishoma
Mari yese inoshandiswa musimba nezviwanikwa zvechisikigo inotarisirwa kudarika USD 1.5 trillion muna 2025, yakakwira ne6% kubva muna 2024 - rekodhi itsva, asi kukura kwacho kuchiderera kusvika hafu yedanho rakaonekwa pakutanga kwemakore gumi aya. Makambani ari kungwarira zvakanyanya, zvichiratidza kusava nechokwadi nezvekumhanya kwekuchinja kwesimba. Mari inoshandiswa musimba shoma yakakwira kusvika ku50% yekushandiswa kwesimba rose muna 2021 asi kubvira ipapo yaderera. Kuzadzisa zvinangwa zveParis kunoda kuwedzera kwe60% mumari yakadaro muna 2030.
3. Vatungamiriri veMafuta vekuEurope Vanoratidza Mhinduro Yavo
Sezvo makambani makuru emafuta ekuUS achishandisa masheya akasimba kuwana makambani akazvimirira emuno, maziso ese ari paShell, BP neEquinor. Chinangwa chavo pari zvino ndechekugona kusimudzira hupfumi - kugadzirisa maportfolio nekubvisa midziyo isiri yepakutanga, kuvandudza mashandiro emari, uye kuwedzera mari inobuda pachena kuti itsigire kudzoka kwemasheya evane masheya. Kunyange zvakadaro, mitengo isina kusimba yemafuta negesi inogona kukonzera shanduko huru kubva kumakambani makuru ekuEurope gare gare muna 2025.
4. Oiri, Gasi neSimbi Zvakagadziriswa paMitengo Isingachinji
OPEC+ yakatarisana nerimwe gore rakaoma ichiedza kuchengetedza Brent iri pamusoro peUSD 80/bbl kwegore rechina rakatevedzana. Nekuwanikwa kwakasimba kwemari isiri yeOPEC, tinotarisira kuti Brent ichava neavhareji yeUSD 70-75/bbl muna 2025. Misika yemafuta inogona kusimba zvakanyanya usati wasvika simba idzva reLNG muna 2026, zvichiita kuti mitengo yemhangura ikwire uye isagadzikana. Mitengo yemhangura yakatanga muna 2025 paUSD 4.15/lb, kubva pakukwirira kwa2024, asi inotarisirwa kukwira zvakare kusvika paavhareji yeUSD 4.50/lb nekuda kwekudiwa kwakasimba kweUS neChina kupfuura kuwanikwa kwemigodhi mitsva.
5. Simba & Zvinogona Kuvandudzwa: Gore Rekukurumidza Kugadzira Zvinhu Zvitsva
Kubvumidza zvishoma nezvishoma uye kubatana kwakabatana kwave kwenguva refu kuchideredza kukura kwesimba rinogona kushandiswazve. Zviratidzo zviri kubuda zvekuti 2025 inogona kuratidza shanduko huru. Kugadziriswa kweGermany kwakasimudza mvumo yemhepo iri kunze kwenyika ne150% kubva muna 2022, ukuwo kugadziriswa kweUS FERC kuri kutanga kupfupisa nguva dzekubatanidza magetsi - nemamwe maISO ari kutanga otomatiki kuderedza zvidzidzo kubva kumakore kusvika kumwedzi. Kuwedzera nekukurumidza kwenzvimbo dzedata kuri kusundidzirawo hurumende, kunyanya muUS, kuti dziise pamberi pekuwanikwa kwemagetsi. Nekufamba kwenguva, izvi zvinogona kuomesa misika yegesi uye kukwidza mitengo yemagetsi, zvichiva nzvimbo yezvematongerwo enyika yakafanana nemitengo yepeturu pamberi pesarudzo dzegore rapfuura.
Sezvo mamiriro ezvinhu achiramba achichinja, vatambi vesimba vachafanira kushandisa mikana iyi nenjodzi nekukurumidza kuti vachengetedze ramangwana ravo munguva ino inokosha.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikunguru-04-2025
